Carabao Cup Final: What to Expect Between Arsenal & Man City
The Carabao Cup Final will see Arsenal take on Manchester City at Wembley Stadium. It will be a high-stakes clash between the top two teams in England, with Arsenal leading the Premier League and City in second place.
This will also be the first League Cup final in history played between the top two teams in the country.
Arsenal come into the Carabao Cup Final as favourites. They are top of the Premier League and recently reached the Champions League quarter-finals after beating Bayer Leverkusen 2-0 in the second leg and 3-1 on aggregate.
However, Mikel Arteta’s side have a busy schedule ahead. They have a European clash against Sporting CP and hold a 9-point lead in the league, which adds pressure in terms of squad rotation.
For Manchester City, this final is crucial. They were knocked out of the Champions League by Real Madrid 5-1 on aggregate in the Round of 16. Their focus is now fully on domestic trophies.
Despite Arsenal’s form, City will not see themselves as underdogs. Their recent history under Pep Guardiola gives them confidence heading into this final.
Road to Carabao Cup Final
Arsenal’s Route to the Carabao Cup Final
Arsenal began their journey with a 2-0 win over Port Vale, followed by another 2-0 win against Brighton & Hove Albion. They then drew 1-1 with Crystal Palace before winning 8-7 on penalties.
They conceded just one goal in these 3 matches.
In the semi-finals, Arsenal faced Chelsea. They won the first leg 3-2 away. In the second leg, Kai Havertz scored late to secure their place at Wembley. This is Arsenal’s first final in 6 years and their 9th League Cup final overall.
Manchester City’s Route to the Carabao Cup Final
Manchester City defeated Huddersfield Town 2-0, Swansea City 3-1 and Brentford 2-0 to reach the semi-finals.
In the semi-finals, City beat Newcastle United 2-0 away and 3-1 at home, sealing their place in the final comfortably. They have scored 12 times and conceded just 2 goals in the EFL Cup this season.
Arsenal vs Man City: Last 5 Results
Recent meetings between the two sides show how competitive this fixture has become. Man City have not won against Arsenal in the last 5 meetings.
- Arsenal 1-0 Manchester City (Oct 2023) – Arsenal ended City’s run of 12 straight league wins with a late Martinelli goal
- Manchester City 0-0 Arsenal (Mar 2024) – A crucial draw as City finished 5 points ahead that season
- Manchester City 2-2 Arsenal (Sep 2024) – John Stones scored in the 98th minute to rescue a point
- Arsenal 5-1 Manchester City (Feb 2025) – Arsenal’s biggest win over City since 2003
- Arsenal 1-1 Manchester City (Sep 2025) – Martinelli scored in stoppage time to equalise
The Gunners are now unbeaten in their last 6 matches against City (W2 D4) after losing 15 of their previous 16 (W1).
Historically, Arsenal have won 30 matches, City have 25 wins and 13 matches have ended all square.
What to Expect in the Carabao Cup Final
Matches between Arsenal and Manchester City have been tightly contested in recent seasons. Apart from the 5-1 win in Feb 2025, most games have been close.
- Arsenal have lost just 1 of their last 5 meetings at Wembley (W3 D1) against City, but that defeat came in the 2018 League Cup final (0-3)
- Manchester City have won their last 4 League Cup meetings vs Arsenal with an aggregate score of 11-1
- Their last defeat to Arsenal in this competition came in 2004-05 (1-2)
Manchester City will also be under pressure. They have lost their last 2 major finals – FA Cup 2024 (vs Manchester United) and FA Cup 2025 (vs Crystal Palace). They have never lost 3 consecutive major finals.
Erling Haaland will be a key player. He has scored in his last 3 games against Arsenal. However, he has never scored in 6 appearances at Wembley for Manchester City.
Arsenal captain Martin Odegaard and Jurrien Timber are doubtful. The duo missed the UCL second leg game against Leverkusen due to injury.
Kepa has been Arsenal’s cup goalkeeper this season. But whether he will keep his place or lose it to David Raya is yet to be seen. Similar to Kepa, James Trafford has been City’s cup goalkeeper and will most likely keep his place after the big semi-final win against Newcastle.
Given the stakes of the match, this game could go beyond 90 minutes. Both teams are likely to stay cautious early and avoid mistakes. Given their scoring form this season, there’s a chance both teams will score. Make your predictions on the Carabao Cup Final.
Final Prediction
On paper, this looks like a very even contest. Arsenal have momentum and consistency, while Manchester City have experience in big matches.
The game is likely to be tight and could go to extra time or even penalties.
City’s experience in finals means they will remain a strong threat but Arsenal’s current form and attacking depth give them a slight advantage in this match.