NBA DPOY Odds 2026: Ranking the Top Contenders
One number tells you how lopsided nba dpoy odds can get when voters and books lock onto one defender: Victor Wembanyama opened as the clear favourite at -175 and later shortened to -325, while the nearest challenger moved from +700 to +275 on the same board, a gap that still left the market heavily tilted toward one name. The key takeaway is simple. If you’re betting this award, don’t treat it like an MVP race with endless plausible winners. DPOY often becomes a narrow market built around rim protection, availability, and team context. That makes the best approach less about naming good defenders and more about spotting who fits the award’s voting pattern before the price fully hardens.
1. Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs
If you want the cleanest read on nba dpoy odds, start with Wembanyama. Sportsbooks treated him like a defensive outlier before the season even settled. That matters because this award usually rewards obvious, visible impact. Shot deterrence. Blocks. The sense that drivers are changing decisions before they even leave the floor.
His profile also fits what casual bettors sometimes miss. DPOY isn’t a “best all-around player” trophy. It’s often a “most feared defender” vote. Wembanyama checks that box more naturally than anyone else in the field.
Why his market is different
BetMGM noted that Wembanyama entered the 2025-26 campaign as a preseason -190 favourite, then went on to become the first unanimous DPOY winner in NBA history with all 100 first-place votes and 500 voting points, while Chet Holmgren finished second with 197. That’s not just a win. That’s a signal about how strongly voters respond when one defender warps the floor every night.
Practical rule: When one player has both the rim-protector narrative and a clear odds gap, waiting for a “better entry” often means missing the number.
A casual bettor can use that in a simple way. If the market is already telling you one defender is in a tier of his own, your real decision isn’t whether he’s elite. It’s whether you want to pay favourite pricing or skip the market entirely.
For broader Spurs context, NBA winners and whiners is a useful companion read.
Best betting angle
Back Wembanyama early or leave him alone. Chasing him late after another defensive headline usually means buying the worst version of the number.
2. Herb Jones, New Orleans Pelicans
Herb Jones is the kind of DPOY candidate the market often underprices at first. He doesn’t have the same centrepiece narrative as an elite shot blocker, but he does have the exact kind of defensive reputation that can gain traction if his team defends at a high level and he keeps drawing the toughest perimeter assignments.
That’s the appeal. You’re not betting volume scoring or star billing. You’re betting whether voters become more willing to reward a wing stopper in a race usually dominated by bigs.
The challenge for perimeter defenders
The main obstacle isn’t talent. It’s award history and market structure. Recent boards have shown how aggressively books can compress the top of the race around one or two players, then leave everyone else in a distant second tier. Fox Sports highlighted one board with Wembanyama at -599, Holmgren at +500, and Rudy Gobert at +2500, which shows how quickly the market can become top-heavy once a favourite separates.
That matters for Jones because his best path isn’t “be the best defender on film.” It’s “force the market to admit this isn’t a one-man race.”
Perimeter defenders need two things to become real DPOY bets: a strong team context and a moment when the favourite looks vulnerable.
A good practical example is injury or missed-time chaos at the top. If a favourite loses momentum, a defender like Jones can move from novelty to live longshot fast.
If you’re tracking playoff-style defensive matchups and how they shape public perception, Thunder vs Pacers prediction shows the kind of game-level framing that often feeds award narratives later.
Best betting angle
Jones makes more sense as an early speculative play than a late chase. If his defensive reputation surges before books fully react, that’s the window.
3. Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics
Tatum is a harder DPOY case to price, which is exactly why he’s interesting. Casual fans often think of him first as a star scorer. Voters, though, can shift quickly when a player anchors winning possessions across multiple positions and does it for a contender.
That doesn’t make him the most likely winner. It does make him a classic narrative swing candidate.
Why a two-way star can gain late momentum
DPOY voters don’t only watch blocks. They respond to defensive ownership. If a top team closes the season with a strong identity on that end and a star is visibly central to it, his candidacy can become more serious than the market assumed earlier.
The caution is that the award still tends to favour more obvious defensive specialists. Tatum’s path is narrower because he’d need both elite team defence and a season-long conversation that reframes him from “great two-way star” to “dominant defender who also scores.”
A practical betting example is this. If you see his name drifting in conversations after marquee games against top offences, but his futures price doesn’t tighten as quickly as the pure defensive bigs, that can be your opening. That’s where platform coverage matters too. If you’re comparing futures markets through a book such as Duelbits sportsbook, the goal isn’t to force a bet. It’s to monitor whether a player like Tatum starts getting treated as a real award threat instead of a brand-name inclusion.
For a team-level read on Boston pressure spots, Celtics vs Knicks prediction adds useful context.
Best betting angle
Tatum is a momentum bet, not a blind preseason one. He becomes interesting when Boston’s defence becomes the story and he gets credit for driving it.
4. OG Anunoby, Toronto Raptors
OG Anunoby sits in the sweet spot between reputation and price. He has the defensive credibility serious fans already respect, but he usually doesn’t get slotted into the same automatic top line as the biggest names in nba dpoy odds.
That’s exactly why he deserves attention. He doesn’t need to become a different defender. He needs the market to catch up to the value of elite versatility.
What bettors should watch
Anunoby’s strongest case comes when voters want to reward defensive range instead of just rim volume. If he’s switching across positions, taking the toughest wing matchup nightly, and his team is defending with structure, his candidacy becomes stronger than casual pricing might suggest.
Use this short checklist:
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Watch team identity: If Toronto’s defence becomes one of the team’s clearest strengths, Anunoby’s case sharpens.
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Track matchup headlines: Big stops against star wings matter because they create memorable award moments.
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Be honest about voter bias: He still has to overcome the market’s natural lean toward centres and paint deterrence.
A practical way to think about Anunoby is as a price-sensitive bet. If the board is heavily concentrated at the top, a player like him can be more appealing than a second favourite whose number already assumes near-perfect conditions.
Best betting angle
Anunoby is worth considering when you want a defender with real credibility but don’t want to pay favourite pricing. He’s more attractive before the broader conversation turns his way.
5. Alperen Şengün, Houston Rockets
Şengün is the most unconventional name on this list, and that matters. Betting awards isn’t only about who fits last year’s template. It’s also about spotting when a player’s role changes faster than public perception.
For Şengün, the question isn’t whether he’s already viewed as the default DPOY prototype. He isn’t. The question is whether improved defensive responsibility can turn him from “offensive hub” into “real two-way centre” in the eyes of voters.
Why he qualifies as a market watch candidate
A lot of award bettors overfocus on reputation and underfocus on category fit. DPOY still rewards big-man impact more naturally than guard or wing defence because the effect is easier to see and easier to sell. If Şengün keeps growing as a back-line defender, that archetype alone gives him a path to much shorter odds than many fans would expect.
Qualitative reading matters more than forcing a fake statistical case. You want to see whether Houston trusts him to finish possessions, protect the paint, and hold up in the kinds of matchups that expose weak defensive centres.
The right longshot isn’t the player with the flashiest name. It’s the one whose defensive role is expanding before the market fully prices it in.
Best betting angle
Şengün is a watchlist bet first. If his defensive standing rises while the public still treats him mainly as an offensive player, that’s when the value appears.
6. Paolo Banchero, Orlando Magic
Banchero is a classic projection play. He has the physical tools and the team setting to attract attention if his defensive influence grows, but bettors need to separate possibility from probability.
That’s the core discipline in nba dpoy odds. Not every talented forward with size becomes a realistic award target. The ones who do usually combine visible defensive growth with a team context that amplifies it.
The case for a longshot ticket
Banchero’s appeal is tied to versatility. If a forward can credibly defend in space, hold up physically, and contribute around the rim, voters start to see a complete defensive package instead of just upside. For a casual bettor, that can make him more interesting than a famous veteran whose case is already fully priced.
Still, this kind of bet only works when the number reflects uncertainty. If his odds shorten sharply on hype alone, the edge disappears. You’d be paying for a story before the evidence is settled.
One practical example is the way the DPOY race can flip when a favourite loses eligibility. CBS Sports noted that Wembanyama was removed from consideration after a season-ending blood clot left him on 46 games played, which was 19 short of the minimum required for eligibility. That’s the kind of disruption that opens the board for developing contenders.
Best betting angle
Banchero is a small-stake flyer only if his team defence becomes impossible to ignore and the top of the market shows instability.
7. Donovan Mitchell, Cleveland Cavaliers
Mitchell is the biggest contrarian play here. Guards rarely own this award conversation for long, and that’s why most bettors won’t seriously consider him. In some cases, that’s the right instinct.
But longshot betting isn’t about pretending the hard path is easy. It’s about identifying the exact scenario where a hard path becomes live.
How a guard can matter in this race
Mitchell would need a very specific setup. Cleveland would have to defend at an elite level, his on-ball pressure would need to become a major talking point, and voters would need to frame him as a tone-setter rather than just a star guard on a good team.
That’s a narrow route, but not a useless one. Markets can overreact to archetypes just as easily as they overreact to headlines. If everyone assumes only towering rim protectors can win, some guards and wings become overpriced in a good way.
Polymarket’s DPOY board showed 100 live prediction markets as of May 20, 2026, which is useful because live prediction pricing can reveal momentum or sentiment shifts before fixed futures markets fully settle. For a name like Mitchell, that kind of signal matters more than static preseason ranking.
Market note: For fringe candidates, don’t just ask “Can he win?” Ask “Is sentiment moving before sportsbooks fully adjust?”
Best betting angle
Mitchell is only playable if you see a real narrative forming around Cleveland’s defence and his role in it. Otherwise, he’s more instructive as a market barometer than a bet.
Top 7 NBA DPOY Odds Comparison
A DPOY board can look wide open in May and turn top heavy fast once one defender starts separating in the metrics voters care about. For bettors, the useful comparison is not just who ranks first. It is which price still matches a realistic path to first place.
| Player | Current Odds Range | Best Bet Type | What Supports the Case | Key Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Wembanyama, Spurs | Favorite to co-favorite range | Early outright, hold | Rim protection, highlight plays, fast narrative traction | Team record and voter fatigue with rebuilding teams |
| Herb Jones, Pelicans | Mid-tier value range | Small outright, price shopping | Perimeter stops, matchup versatility, strong film case | Lower counting stats than rim protectors |
| Jayson Tatum, Celtics | Mid-tier range | Longshot outright only at a big number | Team success, national exposure, switchability | Votes may split toward a more defense-first candidate |
| OG Anunoby, Raptors | Mid-tier to longshot range | Outright only if healthy and priced long | Proven wing defense, strong reputation, steady role | Missed games can kill the ticket early |
| Alperen Şengün, Rockets | Longshot range | Small speculative outright | Rebounding, interior presence, room for defensive growth | Defensive reputation still trails the market's top names |
| Paolo Banchero, Magic | Longshot range | Pass unless the number drifts high | Size, versatility, team visibility if Orlando rises | Defensive resume is not at DPOY standard yet |
| Donovan Mitchell, Cavaliers | Deep longshot range | Watchlist, tiny flyer only on market movement | Team defense can create narrative momentum | Guard bias and limited historical path |
The clearest split is archetype. Wembanyama and Şengün need interior dominance to become obvious to voters. Jones and Anunoby need elite wing tape plus team context strong enough to keep them in the conversation. Tatum, Banchero, and Mitchell need a broader narrative shift because voters rarely hand this award to stars whose defense is seen as additive rather than defining.
That matters for pricing. A favorite can still be a good bet if his path is wide and the market has not fully accounted for how quickly DPOY sentiment hardens. A mid-board name only has value if his route is both specific and underpriced. Jones fits that test better than the other non-favorites because his defensive role is easy to isolate on film, even if his box-score case is thinner.
A simple betting framework helps here:
| Betting read | Players | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Best outright foundation | Wembanyama | Strongest blend of defensive ceiling, visibility, and voter-friendly stats |
| Best value if the market drifts | Herb Jones, OG Anunoby | Wing defenders can beat their number if team defense becomes a headline |
| Price-sensitive longshots only | Tatum, Şengün | Need the right team story and a longer number to justify the risk |
| Mostly a monitor, not a bet | Banchero, Mitchell | More useful for tracking sentiment than tying up futures money early |
The main edge is timing, not just player selection. If a candidate’s case depends on team defense, health, or a sudden narrative turn, waiting can be smarter than betting early. If a candidate’s case depends on block rate, deterrence, and nightly highlights, the cheapest number often comes before the market fully adjusts.
Final Verdict: Where to Place Your Bet
The best lesson from nba dpoy odds is that this market usually narrows faster than people think. It isn’t built like a wide-open MVP race. Once books and voters identify one defender as uniquely dominant, the board can become very top-heavy and stay that way.
That creates two smart paths. The first is simple. Bet the elite favourite early, before the number gets more expensive. The second is more selective. Ignore the middle of the board and hunt for defenders whose role, team context, or narrative can change quickly if the favourite stumbles.
There are also two traps worth avoiding. First, don’t confuse “great defender” with “great DPOY bet.” Some players are respected defenders but don’t fit the award’s usual voting logic. Second, don’t ignore availability. DraftKings’ odds explainer is useful on the basics here because understanding how negative and positive American odds work is essential when converting and comparing futures prices across books, especially in award markets where small shifts can matter. If you’re line shopping, RotoWire’s aggregation approach is a practical reminder that comparing multiple books is often the difference between a fair bet and a bad one.
My betting view is straightforward. Wembanyama is the strongest true favourite profile because he matches the market’s preferred archetype and has already shown he can turn a race into a formality. Herb Jones and OG Anunoby are better as value stabs if you’re specifically betting against the field becoming a one-man procession. Tatum works if Boston’s defence becomes the headline. The others are conditional plays, not automatic bets.
Watch injury news, games-played risk, and major defensive statement games. Bet early when the case is structural. Bet late only when the narrative has changed and the odds haven’t caught up.
Duelbits News publishes the kind of sports coverage that helps casual bettors think more clearly about markets like DPOY, from previews and predictions to broader trend pieces across basketball and beyond. If you want more data-led analysis without the usual filler, keep an eye on Duelbits News.